The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

Point |

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call

Brazil Diversified Banks - Taking a Cautious Stance: ITUB and BPAC Stand Out

We turn more cautious on Brazilian banks as the macro backdrop deteriorates,

with rising asset quality pressures, particularly in consumer credit and

agribusiness. The recent share price de-rating reflects a correction after early-year

rally, a signal that investors are anticipating weaker macro backdrop and asset

quality pressures. We reduce our target price to reflect a higher cost of equity

assumption, driven by the upward shift in the yield curve and expectations of

higher interest rates for longer. We remain selective, with ITUB and BPAC as our

top picks, where we believe consistent execution will pay off and where current

valuations appear dislocated. BBAS and SANB remain our least preferred names.

Gustavo Schroden | Brian Flores, CFA | Arnon Shirazi, CFA

Company

Ambev (ABEV3.SA) - Weather Tracker Q2: Chilly Weather for Thirsty Football

Fans

2Q26 weather conditions have been slightly softer than both 2025 and historical

averages, falling short of expectations for a more supportive backdrop after the

cold-wet 2Q25. Our nine-city panel is tracking 0.3°C below the same period of

2Q25 and 0.5°C below the 10-year average through June 22. April was supportive,

with Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo running 2.5°C and 1.8°C above April 2025,

respectively, before colder conditions returned in May and June. In the quarter,

through June 22, São Paulo is running 0.1°C below last year and 0.8°C below

normal, with 22 "cold days" (<20°C) versus 15 days in 2025, while Rio remains

broadly in line with last year. Weather has disappointed relative to expectations,