Japan: June 2026 PMI

Research evidence excerpt

Japan: June 2026 PMI

Global Markets Research

23 June 2026Japan: June 2026 PMI

Economics - Japan

Research Analysts

Results back up scenario of economic recovery Japan Economics

driven by domestic demand Yuki Ito - NSC

yuki.ito@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3867

Concerns about prolonged supply constraints and slowdown in inbound Kyohei Morita - NSC

demand kyohei.morita@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1395

• The S&P Global flash Japan manufacturing PMI for June 2026 came in at 54.9, above

the economic recovery/deterioration threshold of 50 for a sixth straight month. The

new orders index indicated strong domestic demand.

• The supplier delivery times index remained low, suggesting persistent supply

constraints on the volume side. While the impact on manufacturing output thus far

appears to be limited, we will need to continue to keep a close eye on the outcome of

negotiations to open up the Strait of Hormuz.

• The services PMI rose, but the new export business index, a reference index, fell for a

third straight month. We note the risk that inbound demand could hamper economic

recovery in summer–autumn 2026.

Manufacturing PMI: Order index shows underlying strength in domestic demand

The S&P Global flash Japan manufacturing PMI for June 2026 came in at 54.9, up 0.4pt

from the finalized reading for May. The reading remained above the economic

recovery/deterioration threshold of 50 for a sixth straight month.

The new orders index was up 1.0pt m-m at 54.2, the output index was up 0.3pt at 54.3,

the employment index was up 0.3pt at 53.4, and the stocks of purchases index was up

0.3pt at 50.4. These indices contributed to the rise in the headline manufacturing PMI. The

0.6pt decline in the new export orders index to 52.8, included as a reference index,