Japanese crude steel output (May 2026), order statistics (April)

Research evidence excerpt

Japanese crude steel output (May 2026), order statistics (April)

Japanese crude steel output (May 2026), order Global Markets Research

statistics (April) 23 June 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN STEEL, NONFERROUS METALS, WIRE & CABLE

Research Analysts

Output may have risen y-y in Apr–Jun Japan steel, nonferrous metals,

wire & cable

Yuji Matsumoto - NSC

Front-loaded demand possibly a factor at play for construction-use steel yuji.matsumoto@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1220

Summary: We forecast a modest recovery in output going forward Kaori Iwasaki - NSC

According to production statistics for May released by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation kaori.iwasaki@nomura.com

on 22 June, crude steel output was up 2% y-y in May, marking a second straight month of +81 3 6703 1198

growth. Assuming that the m-m change in daily crude steel output in June follows the

normal seasonal pattern, this would put crude steel output up 1% y-y in Apr–Jun, marking

the first rise since Oct–Dec 2023. We expect output at steel companies to recover

gradually going forward. Specialty steel output looks to be driven by a recovery in

underlying demand, but we think output for ordinary steel was due largely to front-loaded

demand for construction-use steel products ahead of price hikes by steel producers. We

see a risk that this could result in lower demand in several months’ time.

Daily crude steel output: Apr–Jun crude steel output may have risen y-y

Daily crude steel output was up 2% both m-m and y-y in May (Figure1). Daily crude steel

output was up y-y in April and May, marking the first time crude steel output has been up

two months in a row since Dec 2023–Jan 2024. LD converter furnace crude steel output

(daily, broadly equivalent to blast furnace steelmaker output) was up 3% m-m and 1% y-y,