Sunbelt Rentals: A Tall (Margin) Order; Lowering Dec 26 PT to $74

Research evidence excerpt

Sunbelt Rentals: A Tall (Margin) Order; Lowering Dec 26 PT to $74

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

24 June 2026

Sunbelt Rentals Underweight

SUNB, SUNB US

A Tall (Margin) Order; Lowering Dec 26 PT to $74 Price (23 Jun 26):$75.41

▼Price Target (Jun-27):$74.00

Prior (Dec-26):$75.00

The flattish EBITDA margin guidance for FY27 has downside, given the

persistent mix headwinds; we remain Underweight and lower PT to $74. Machinery, Engineering &

ConstructionSUNB’s F4Q EBITDA margin miss (down ~290bps excluding 1x items vs. the

Street modeling ~100bps decline YoY) was driven by mix headwinds tied to Tami Zakaria, CFA AC

Specialty and ancillary revenues and lower delivery cost recovery. (1-212) 622-9888

tami.zakaria@jpmchase.com

Deconstructing the FY27 rental revenue growth guidance of 5-8%, we

estimate the core rental revenue growth is expected to be ~LTMSD%, if we Alec R McGuire

(1-212) 622-2432

assume ~2% of incremental growth will come from growth in delivery/pick-up and alec.mcguire@jpmorgan.com

other revenues (i.e., ancillary) and ~1% from the Aries acquisition. We expect

Raquel Betesh

~50bps of EBITDA margin headwind YoY in FY27 from these non-core (1-212) 622-1313

revenue growth drivers, which will need to be offset by rental rate improvement raquel.betesh@jpmchase.com

(minus fuel/freight surcharges), operational efficiencies, and a reduction in J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

delivery and SG&A costs. Management guided to YoY EBITDA margin

degradation in 1H27 and improvement in 2H27, leading to flattish margin YoY in

Key Changes (FYE Apr)FY27. Moreover, it appears that management expects $ utilization of the fleet to

remain flattish to modestly up YoY this year, but we see risk to the downside Prev Cur Δ

Revenue - 28E ($ mn) 12,159 12,583 3.5%