Australia: CPI tracking further below SoMP forecasts

Research evidence excerpt

Australia: CPI tracking further below SoMP forecasts

J P M O R G A N Economic Research

24 June 2026

Australia: CPI tracking further

below SoMP forecasts

May’s monthly CPI reading was below our sub-consensus forecast at -0.7%m/m Australian and New Zealand Interest

(JPM: -0.5%m/m, consensus: -0.4%m/m), or 4.0%oya. Trimmed mean was a firm Rate Strategy

+0.4% on the month, though, with two of three months in hand, the implied %3m/3m Ben K Jarman

rate on core is still sticking at 0.8%q/q and gradually decelerating, with measures of (61-2) 9003-7982

breadth also well-capped. This is lower than the %m/m core prints from late 2025, ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com

despite what should be relatively front-loaded pass-through of the oil price shock J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

working through the quarter. We continue to see downside risk relative to the RBA’s

SoMP forecasts for 2Q, with our tracking of 0.9%q/q for headline (RBA: 1.4%) and

trimmed mean at 0.9%q/q (RBA: 1.0%).

The increase in trimmed mean on the month from +0.31%m/m to 0.375% was, on our

calculations, influenced by incomplete trimming of the bulky 'new dwelling purchase'

expenditure class which essentially captures building costs/margins. This was up a

robust 0.9%m/m from 0.7% in April, an expected pocket of pass-through from higher

global materials prices and shortages related to the Middle East conflict. As shown in

previous research, in having the single largest CPI weight, trimmed mean has

significant leverage to this item, though its marginal influence also fades sharply with

impulses in the remainder of the basket, and in our view there is limited upside from

here given weakening dynamics on the demand side in housing.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, goods prices eased 0.5%m/m with fuel making a large