BoJ opinions: Still a lot left to do

Research evidence excerpt

BoJ opinions: Still a lot left to do

J P M O R G A N Japan Economic Research

24 June 2026

The summary of opinions from the BoJ’s June meeting confirmed the Board’s Economic and Policy Research

hawkish bias and helped justify the decision to hike. Looking ahead, many Takuho Morimoto

members appeared to support continuing rate hikes, but relatively few commented (81-3) 6736-6682

on the pace or specific timing of further moves. That said, two members argued for takuho.morimoto@jpmorgan.com

accelerating the hiking pace. Overall, the tone suggests that the Board sees JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

downside risks to domestic and global growth receding, while concerns about

upside inflation risks are intensifying. We continue to expect the next rate hike to

come in October, driven by yen depreciation and ongoing inflationary pressures.

On inflation, almost all comments pointed to strengthening inflationary pressure.

Regarding oil price shocks, some opinions noted that the risk of supply constraints

tightening further has diminished thanks to alternative sourcing. At the same time,

there were concerns that the ongoing rise in producer prices could feed through

broadly into consumer inflation and inflation expectations. In addition, several

members highlighted that—beyond Middle East developments—the demand

shock from the global expansion of AI-related demand is adding to price pressures.

One member noted that AI demand is “pushing up economic activity and prices

more than expected,” while another argued that “it is highly possible that the

upward deviation in prices will start to spread across a wider range of items.”

Discussions on monetary policy tilted hawkish. One member emphasized that

even after the rate hike, financial conditions “are expected to remain