Europe PMIs: Price momentum eases

Research evidence excerpt

Europe PMIs: Price momentum eases

Global Markets Research

23 June 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Europe PMIs: Price momentum eases ResearchEuropean EconomicsAnalysts

Josie Anderson - NIplc

• TheEuropeanPMIssuggestactivitycontinuedtodeclineattheendofQ2.Theeuro josie.anderson@nomura.com

areacompositePMIoutputindexrose1.0pt,butremainedincontractionterritoryat +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

49.5inJune.Meanwhile,theUKcompositePMIoutputindexfell0.3ptsto49.4. George Buckley - NIplc

george.buckley@nomura.com

• PriceindicesfellacrosstheboardintheEuropeanPMIsforJune,butremainhigher +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

thanpriortotheIranwar,particularlyinthemanufacturingsector.

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

• WeexpecttheBoEandECBtoleaveratesunchangedinJuly,astheycontinueto andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

assessthefalloutfromtheglobalenergyshock. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

Global EconomicsEuro area and UK business activity remained in contraction (below 50) according to the

David Seif - NSIJune PMI surveys, though the composite PMI output index rose in France and for the euro david.seif@nomura.com

area as a whole. Meanwhile, the price indices of the PMI surveys fell across the board, but +1 212 667 9180

remain higher than prior to the outbreak of the Iran war.

Activity remains in contraction

The euro area composite PMI output index rose 1.0pt to 49.5, above our and consensus

expectations, and driven by the service sector, as the manufacturing output index was

broadly unchanged. This reflects the service sector-driven rise in the French composite

PMI output index. However, the German composite PMI output index fell in June, against

our and consensus expectations of an increase. It declined 0.8pts to 48.0, which is its

lowest since the end of 2024.

Fig. 1: Euro area services price PMIs decline Fig.