Changing our ECB view on lower oil prices

Research evidence excerpt

Changing our ECB view on lower oil prices

Global Markets Research

23 June 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Changing our ECB view on lower oil prices ResearchEuropean EconomicsAnalysts

Josie Anderson - NIplc

• Followingthedeclineinthespotpriceofoilto$77/bblfromover$90/bblatthelast josie.anderson@nomura.com

ECBmeeting, weremoveone25bphikefromourECBview andnowexpect25bp +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

hikesinSeptemberandDecember2026(butnolongerinMarch2027). George Buckley - NIplc

george.buckley@nomura.com

• ECBspeakwilllikelyremainhawkish,withaSeptemberhikeinourviewhighlylikely. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

WedonotexpecttheECBtoundothesehikes;hence,wepushbackonmarket

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc pricingforcutsinH22027.

andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

• A December2026hikeremainsourexpectation,thoughweseeariskitwillnotoccur. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

Itwilllikelydependoninflationdataoutturnsandevidenceofabroadeningof Global Economics

inflationarypressures. David Seif - NSI

david.seif@nomura.com

Removing a hike due to developments in Iran +1 212 667 9180

We remove one 25bp hike from our ECB view and now expect hikes in September

and December 2026 (but no longer in March 2027).

The key reason we are removing a rate hike is the improved situation in the Middle East.

When we added three hikes to our forecast (on 11 June), the spot price of oil was over

$90/bbl (it is now $77/bbl) and President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran had turned more

hawkish. However, the Strait of Hormuz reopened soon thereafter, so we now adjust our

view in light of the decline in energy prices.

Fig. 1: ECBspeak has moved much more hawkish Fig. 2: Services inflation looks high

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Nomura Source: Eurostat, Haver, Nomura

ECBspeak: Measured policy adjustment needed, vigilant to services inflation