US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

23 June 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

ADPprivatepayrolls: ADP data suggest private payrolls rose to 30.75k per week in the +1 212 667 9347

four-week period ending 6 June from an upwardly revised 26.50k previously (Fig.1). This Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

result marks a slight pickup in the pace of job creation. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637S&PPMIs: The preliminary print of the S&P manufacturing PMI printed 55.7 in June from

55.1 in May, its highest level since May 2022. Output and new orders rose to multi-year Ruchir Sharma - NSI

highs. Some of the strength was attributable to front-running due to supply and cost issues ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186associated with the Iran war. Inventories of inputs in June rose at the fastest pace in the

survey's history barring the tariff announcements in 2025. Notably, the employment index Jacklyn Goloborodsky - NSI

returned to contractionary territory, falling to its lowest level since May 2020. jacklyn.goloborodsky@nomura.com

+1 212 298 4739

The preliminary print of the S&P services PMI ticked up to 51.3 in June from 50.7 in May.

Global EconomicsBusiness activity and export orders improved. The employment index ticked up but

David Seif - NSIremained sub-50 for the second consecutive month (Fig.2). david.seif@nomura.com

Goods price inflation measured by manufacturers’ prices paid and received slowed due to +1 212 667 9180

lower energy costs. However, service sector selling price inflation edged higher, pointing

to sticky services inflation. Dovish policymakers tend to focus on tariffs/energy prices,