JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - No Pain, No Gain

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - No Pain, No Gain

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

23 June 2026

spending, backlogs) and technical drivers (retail participation, levered ETF hedging).

For size, 20d realized vol in ICESEMI (the benchmark underlier of SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF)

climbed to its highest since Liberation on Monday at 75v. This was paired with a >20% move higher during the same

period!Today’s 1d realized move was 126v equiv.

ICESEMI 20d Realized Vol on a consistent upswing amidst the memory rally...

Recent market gains have been extended by the same technical factors that weighed on the market today, and that’s

comforting.

Moving forward, it’s hard to understate the importance of last week’s Fed meeting. While equity markets staged a fairly awesome

recovery into the end of the week, much of that can be attributed to the oil-driven move lower in treasury yields. Though it’s

certainly a relief to see geopolitically driven worries clearing from the market as the US and Iran move closer to a permanent

solution, the evolution of macro data will now become increasingly more important.

Why? Taking stock of the recent crude move, the velocity of the selloff in WTI/Brent appears to be slowing down around ~$70

despite continued headlines of (increasing) free-flowing barrels through the Strait. More importantly, front-month spreads have

held on to the initial MOU-linked drawdown and taken a pause. The market has moved past the first part of the war trade

and on to assessing the macro implications resulting. Without full confirmation of the conflict’s end, the investors are

establishing a crude floor (even if tactical) admist the demand-pull of summer driving season and a known global need to re-

plenish drowned inventories.