Alimentation Couche-Tard: 4Q26 Takeaways - It‘s a Good Time to Be in the C-Store Business, and ATD Is Taking Advantage of It

Research evidence excerpt

Alimentation Couche-Tard: 4Q26 Takeaways - It‘s a Good Time to Be in the C-Store Business, and ATD Is Taking Advantage of It

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 June 2026

Alimentation Couche-Tard Overweight

ATDb.TO, ATD CN

4Q26 Takeaways - It’s a Good Time to Be in the C-Store Price (23 Jun 26):C$91.80

Business, and ATD Is Taking Advantage of It ▲Price Target (Dec-27):C$105.00 Prior (Dec-27):C$103.00

The ATD shares were up 12% today (vs. SPX -1%), marking the stock’s biggest

post-earnings move in over a decade (in either direction). Fuel margins benefited Food Producers & Retailers

from price volatility and contributed most to the earnings upside (as was also the Thomas Palmer, CFA AC

case for CASY, MUSA, and YSWY in their latest earnings). However, we think the (1-212) 622-5582

positive stock price reaction is more a reflection of the company’s strong thomas.palmer@jpmorgan.com

Merchandise SSS and margin expansion Y-Y in the US and Europe (initial take). Elsa H Evans

ATD’s growth initiatives seem to be taking hold, especially in the US. We look for (1-212) 622-4922

elsa.evans@jpmchase.com

this momentum to be sustained into FY27, even in the midst of an uneven consumer J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

environment, aided by an industry rebound in nicotine sales (higher margin

pouches), continued strong growth for beverages (especially energy), and the rapid

growth of ATD’s foodservice offering (especially Meal Deals). At some point, we Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Apr)

would like to see elevated operating expense growth rates taper off, but for now, Adj. EBITDA (C$ mn)

gross profit is the key driver of earnings growth. We remain Overweight the shares. 2026A 2027E 2028E

Q1 1,614 1,711 1,666

• Updating estimates and price target.