US: PMI still subdued in services, though edges higher

Research evidence excerpt

US: PMI still subdued in services, though edges higher

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

23 June 2026

US: PMI still subdued in services,

though edges higher

• The flash all-industry PMI rose from 51.5 in May to 52.2 in June, with Economic and Policy Research

continued strength in manufacturing and mild growth in services Abiel Reinhart

• The press release characterized the survey as consistent with growth a bit (1-617)abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com712 9122

over 1%, though the hard data points to growth closer to 3.0% this quarter JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• The press release continues to attribute some of the recent surge in

manufacturing activity to front loading by firms

• Inflationary pressures began to moderate in manufacturing as energy

prices fell, though the price indexes remain high and supplier delivery

times keep lengthening

The June all-industry flash output improved to 52.2 from 51.5 in May and a recent

low of 50.3 in March, as manufacturing continued to expand into the end of the

quarter, coupled with muted growth in services. The press release characterizes this

as consistent with growth a touch over 1%, though based on expenditure data we

think 2Q growth is tracking closer to 3.0%. There is a noisy relationship between

the PMIs and GDP when the economy is growing, so it may be more valuable to

consider the trend instead of the exact point prediction. As noted above, the

composite has gradually picked up in recent months. On the other hand, it’s still

somewhat below the strong readings in the second half of last year, when it

averaged 54.2, as well as the full-year 2025 average of 53.3. On balance, it still

likely suggests that growth should decelerate some from our estimated 3.0% pace