Curveball: HG Credit Curve Opportunities

Research evidence excerpt

Curveball: HG Credit Curve Opportunities

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

23 June 2026

Curveball: HG Credit Curve

Opportunities

HG spread curves steepen amid sharp UST curve

flattening

• The HG spread curve steepened last week, especially in the belly, as JULI North America Corporate Credit -

spreads widened by 4bp to 86bp. The 5s10s curve steepened by 1.9bp WoW to Investment Grade Strategy

26bp, its steepest level since mid-March. The 3s5s curve steepened by 0.6bp Silvi Mantri AC

to 16bp and is now at 80% of its 6m range. The 10s30s curve also steepened (1-212) 834-7239

by 1bp to 17bp but remains relatively flat at 26% of its 6m range. UST curve silvi.mantri@jpmchase.com

moves were more substantial, with the overall 2s30s UST curve flattening by Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA

19bp as front-end yields rose by 16bp, with the market now pricing in a Fed (1-212) 834-2370

hike by October 2026. nathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• The 3s5s curve steepened by 0.6bp WoW and by 2.5bp MoM to 15.8bp. The

3s5s issuer curves for TTEFP (10bp WoW) and SHW (10bp WoW) steepened

the most, while DE (-9bp WoW) and WES (-7bp WoW) flattened the most

WoW. Currently, GILD (15bp, 100%) and AVGO (15bp, 100%) are at the

steepest level, while PYPL (16bp, 0%) and LLY (11bp, 12%) are at the flattest

level in their 6m range.

• The 5s10s curve steepened by 1.9bp WoW and by 3.9bp MoM to 25.7bp. The

5s10s issuer curves for LYB (11bp WoW) and BMW (9bp WoW) steepened the

most while OKE (-6bp WoW) and XYL (-4bp WoW) flattened the most WoW.

Currently, ROP (43bp, 100%) and AQNCN (31bp, 100%) are at the steepest

level, while NOVNVX (10bp, 4%) and OKE (18bp, 6%) are at the flattest level

in their 6m range.

• The 10s30s curve steepened by 1.0bp WoW and by 1.2bp MoM to 16.7bp.