Commodity Market Positioning & Flows: Hormuz re-opening brings commodity OI to YTD lows

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Market Positioning & Flows: Hormuz re-opening brings commodity OI to YTD lows

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

23 June 2026

Commodity Market Positioning &

Flows

Hormuz re-opening brings commodity OI to YTD lows

• The estimated value of open interest across tracked commodity markets Global Commodities Research

decreased by 3% WoW (-$53bn) to $1.7trn, as of June 19 (Table 2Theestimatedvalueofcomoditymarketopeninterestacrosmajorglobalexchangesreached$1.72trninthewekending19June, Figure 2Theestimatedvalueofglobalcomoditymarketopeninterestdecreasedby3%WoW). The Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

decline was largely concentrated in crude oil (-$31bn WoW) and natural gas (44-20) 3493-8246

markets (-$11bn WoW) as energy prices declined significantly following the otar.dgebuadze@jpmorgan.com

signing of the US-Iran MoU. On the macro front, our economists expect that J.P. Morgan Securities plc

recent developments towards an opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Natasha Kaneva

resulting fall in energy prices should reverse some of the confidence (1-212) 834-3175

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

deterioration (Daily Economic Briefing: Strait opening eases worries, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Szentivanyi et al, 22 June 2026). On the central banks side, the team flags the

Gregory C. Shearer

FOMC hawkish tilt as surprising, however, the base case for the first hike is still (44-20) 7134-8161

next year, as both the headline and core inflation are expected to moderate in the gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com

coming months (Global Data Watch: The fog of Warsh, Kasman et al, 19 June J.P. Morgan Securities plc

2026). Tracey Allen

• The estimated value of net investor positioning aggregated across tracked (44-20)tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com7134-6732