FirstRand Ltd: Trading update - FY26 guidance maintained amid solid operating momentum; UK exit a positive catalyst

Research evidence excerpt

FirstRand Ltd: Trading update - FY26 guidance maintained amid solid operating momentum; UK exit a positive catalyst

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

23 June 2026

FirstRand Ltd Overweight

FSRJ.J, FSR SJ

Trading update - FY26 guidance maintained amid solid Price (22 Jun 26):9,902c

operating momentum; UK exit a positive catalyst Price Target (Dec-27):11,471c

Our Take: FirstRand’s FY26 trading update indicates a challenging year CEEMEA Financials

ACdominated by the UK motor commission redress scheme, with a further pre-tax Baron Nkomo

accounting provision of £510m (R11.2bn) raised, bringing the total expected (27-11) 507-0385

provision to approximately £750m (R16.5bn). This is expected to result in a baron.nkomo@jpmorgan.com

contraction in normalised earnings of between 4% and 9%, with ROE slightly J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

below the bottom end of its long term target range of 18-22% — versus Bloomberg Pooja Ruia

consensus of -4% earnings and 18% ROE, and our estimate of -6% and 17% ROE. (91-22) 6157-3688

pooja.ruia@jpmchase.com

Excluding the UK provision, underlying operational performance remains robust, J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

and guidance on growth in normalised earnings and ROE for FY26 is maintained

(guidance excluding the UK impact was for mid-teens level growth). Balance sheet

growth is healthy, with advances growth accelerating in the second half, resulting Style Exposure

in net interest income growth trending slightly higher than half-year guidance,

driven by the South African and broader Africa lending franchises. Net interest

margin (excluding UK) expanded slightly, while UK operations continued to

experience margin compression. Core credit performance is better than guided,