JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

23 June 2026

We have been holding mid-year outlook meetings in the US over the past week. Emerging Markets Corporate

Investors are generally resigned to spreads remaining tight, but wonder what Strategy

could lead to a meaningful widening even if low probability at the moment, with Yang-Myung Hong AC

discussions around recession, inflation, higher rates, and lower oil prices. (1-212) 834-4274

Positioning does not seem too heavy overall, though with the usual skew towards ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

Latam and light in Asia while CEEMEA is mixed given Middle East. Fund flows J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

continue to come into EM fixed income funds which are being allocated to EM Alisa Meyers

corporates, but remains challenging for dedicated CEMBI strategies. In addition, (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

there seems to be optimism on the attractiveness of EM by global bond funds. The J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

new issue market has been a good source to allocate risk with activity in diverse Dhawal U Mehta

issuers across region, country, and segments. (91-22) 6157 3779

dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

The fundamental trajectory of EM corporates came up frequently with strong J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

earnings but questions around margin trend given cost pressures. Default rates

remain higher than US HY but are concentrated in Brazil, excluding which the

levels are fairly benign. Oil prices expectations are more elevated than current

levels at $80-$90/bbl, and investors are generally positioned selectively in

commodity sectors given valuations despite the strong fundamental backdrop. We

did not hear too much worries about the outcomes and implications from Latam