EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 23 June 2026

RUB Use/rub gapped higher soon into the session from 73.25 up to 74.00. Not quite sure what was

behind the move but it was naturally driven by onshore flows. It comes as a bit of a surprise as

the last week in the month tends to bring out heightened exporter selling. Offshore interest was

low ... a fair bit of corporate hedging has already been executed this month at better

levels. Let's see if the move higher has more legs today.

ZAR The greenback continued to trade higher yesterday, but it was the tech sell-off—led by losses in

Asia—that pushed risk lower this morning, with USDZAR now trading just below 16.50. My

view is unchanged: I continue to run long USD, mainly versus G10 (CAD, CHF and EUR),

while still maintaining some EM longs in HUF and ZAR. Flow-wise, we again saw better

supply in USDZAR yesterday, mainly from real-money accounts. Focus today is on the PMI

releases.

TRY TRY is starting the week with a less friendly external backdrop after the hawkish FOMC last

week, with a stronger USD and higher front-end rates weighing on EM carry in general. Having

said that, USDTRY price action is still firmly contained by state-bank offers which is currently

at 46.4800, broadly in line with the expected crawl. Local flows remain the main focus as there

are still no meaningful signs of local retail dollarisation. Although political risk has also

eased somewhat in recent weeks, it’s still worth keeping an eye on headlines after presidential

motions seeking to lift the immunity of Ozgur Ozel were submitted to the Joint Committee. Our

base case for elections still remain closer to late-2027.