Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

22 June 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research AnalystsCrude oil stops falling and upward pressures on

Strategyyields emerge

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Movements in share prices as a test of the success or failure of the naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

growth strategy +81 3 6703 3864

• The decline in crude oil prices and the fall in inflation expectations triggered by the

Middle East peace agreement have run their course. A global economic recovery is

likely to become more visible in markets, creating upward pressure on yields.

• Differences in countries' fiscal and monetary policy stances tend to show up in the

extent to which yields rise and in yield curves.

• In Japan, inflation expectations remain on an uptrend even after the peace agreement,

reflecting the Takaichi administration’s reflationary stance and concerns that the BOJ

is behind the curve.

• The bank, real estate, and machinery sectors will serve as a litmus test of whether the

government's growth strategy will have a positive impact on the broader economy.

Today's Japanese market

In Japanese markets on Monday, this author expects bonds to weaken and equities to

show limited upside (in overnight futures trading, bonds were down 19 sen and equities

were up JPY230 over OSE). In overseas markets last Friday, Middle East peace talks

stalled, oil prices rose, and bonds and equities weakened. US markets were closed, but

futures data shows that both bonds and equities fell. In the FX market, USD was stuck in a

range. JPY, lacking agency, was stuck in the 160.0-160.5 range against USD, and was

mixed against cross currencies.

On Friday, crude oil rose as concerns over the Middle East situation re-emerged.