China: A property market "K-shape" is materialising

Research evidence excerpt

China: A property market "K-shape" is materialising

Global Markets Research

22 June 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

China: A property market “K-shape” is materialising Asia Economics

Jing Wang - NIHK

In our recent thematic note (see China:AIboom,propertybustandK-shapes, 27 May jing.wang@nomura.com

2026), we stated that, “As the fruits of AI-driven growth are mainly reaped by a few +852 2252 1011

selected ‘smart’ cities, especially the four top-tier ones, a real property market recovery Ting Lu - NIHK

may only take place in those cities, especially as property restrictions there have been ting.lu@nomura.com

lifted.” Recent housing data show an evident geographic divergence and lend support to +852 2252 1306

our view. Housing prices in a handful of “smart” cities show clear signs of stabilization,

while price declines in most lower-tier cities have worsened. On net, overall housing prices

have fallen at a faster pace, leading to heightened downward pressures on aggregate

domesticdemand. This supports our views that the stabilization across a few large cities

cannot fully offset the weakness in other cities, and that the AI boom might not be a cure

for China’s economic woes, inflicted largely by the property bust. Beijing still may

eventually be impelled to step up policy measures to clean up the bad debt in the property

sector and speed up fiscal reform to support those cities that have been left behind.

Clearer signs of price stabilization in “smart” cities, especially those in the top tier

Amid the AI boom, existing home prices in tier-1 cities have shown further signs of

stabilization, with three consecutive months of 0.4% m-o-m gains, while a couple of tier-2

cities have improved mildly.