Tyler Technologies: Recentering Investor Focus On Cloud Migration Runway with FCF Durability

Research evidence excerpt

Tyler Technologies: Recentering Investor Focus On Cloud Migration Runway with FCF Durability

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 June 2026

Tyler Technologies Overweight

TYL, TYL US

Recentering Investor Focus On Cloud Migration Price (22 Jun 26):$275.27

Runway with FCF Durability ▼Price Target (Dec-27):$525.00 Prior (Dec-26):$650.00

TYL stock performance has been weak post Investor Day, despite what we viewed

as a strong presentation (read our takeaways here). We are specifically encouraged Vertical SaaS & HealthTech

by CFO raising 2030E recurring revenue and FCF targets (which envisages ~10– Alexei Gogolev AC

12% recurring revenue CAGR “anchor” through 2030 and continued FCF margin (1-212) 622-9391

expansion to low 30% levels). We think the post–Investor Day dislocation reflects alexei.gogolev@jpmorgan.com

investor debate around flip cadence, AI displacement optics, and the ~$1.4B Isabella A Camaj

convertible, rather than a deterioration in Tyler’s FCF-led execution story. With (1-212) 834-2379

bella.camaj@jpmorgan.com

recurring revenue already 87% of total, a goal to convert ~85% of maintenance

Ella Smith

dollars to SaaS by 2030E and “Cloud Living” pilots beginning in 2027E, we see

(1-212) 622-2451

a durable cash flow profile and a longer cloud runway than the stock reaction ella.smith@jpmchase.com

implies. Near-term attention should narrow to 2Q transaction growth seasonality, Destiny Jackson

flip-driven net new ARR cadence, and guidance/mix framing. (1-212) 622-4360

destiny.jackson@jpmorgan.com

• Positive take from Investor Day. Management increased two key 2030E J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

targets—recurring revenue and free cash flow—while reaffirming its “anchor”

framework of ~10–12% recurring revenue growth through 2030 and continued