JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

22 June 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

Being on the same page is likely the key Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Pension funds and overseas investors were strong net buyers of JGBs yujiro.goto@nomura.com

across the curve in May +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• The market continues to view the Fed was more hawkish than the BOJ. It remains yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

complacent about the MOF's jawboning, and ahead of the BOJ and Fed events last +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

week, net JPY short positions were already accumulated to the highest level since

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC mid-2024. tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

• Based on past intervention episodes (albeit with limited sample sizes), using a +81 3 6703 1427

comparison of the intraday lows and highs of USD/JPY between the first and second Yuki Kodera - NSC

rounds suggests the MOF’s next intervention could materialize when USD/JPY yuki.kodera@nomura.com

approaches the 163 level. +81 3 6703 1281

• For the market to turn bullish on JPY, we think it likely needs to see the BOJ and

government being on the same page about current JPY weakness. It will be crucial to

watch the government’s stance on the currency and the BOJ’s rate hike path, as fiscal

policy discussions progress.

Fig. 1: CFTC's JPY futures positions and USD/JPY Fig. 2: Net JGB purchase by type of investor in JSDA data

Source: Macrobond, Bloomberg, Nomura Note: The classification is by their maturity at the time of issuance, and not the remaining

maturity. Super long-term bonds include the 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year JGBs; long-

term bonds refer to the 10-year JGBs; and medium-term bonds encompass the 5-year

and 2-year JGBs.

Source: Macrobond, Nomura