Metso Corporation: Early look at the Q2‘26 Results: Order weakness driven by Aggregates; Mining outlook remains positive

Research evidence excerpt

Metso Corporation: Early look at the Q2‘26 Results: Order weakness driven by Aggregates; Mining outlook remains positive

y y/y. Ram S Mehta

(91-22) 6157-3233

• Divisional Forecasts. In Minerals, we model limited large orders (only one ram.mehta@jpmchase.com

€10m announced) but we expect total equipment orders to be €301m as a result J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

of strong underlying activity. We expect c.€700m of service orders, up c.10%

y/y. Sequentially, we expect sales to be up at €995m, driven largely by AM. We Specialist Sales contact details:

expect a margin of 18.1%, sequentially up due to better mix. As flagged at our Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales -

Industrials Conference last week, Aggregates is expected to be sequentially European Industrials

weaker than usual driven by weak Europe demand (due to high fuel costs) and (44-20) 7742-8733

sam.edmunds@jpmorgan.com

Q1 seeing pre-buying. Typically Q2 orders are 15-20% weaker but we model

a 31% decline. As such, we model orders of €303m. Sales should improve Style Exposure

sequentially from a weak Q1. Our sales and Adj. EBITA margin forecasts are

€343m and 16.2%, respectively.

• Reko-Diq update (feedback from our Industrials Conference). Barrick has

delayed its $9bn mega copper and gold greenfield project in Pakistan due to the

current geopolitical crisis in the region. The decision came after the group

launched a review of the Reko Diq development last month (5 Feb), following

a rise in separatist violence in the province of Balochistan, where the mine is

located. Metso has delivered c.50% of the c.€220m backlog with the remainder

to be delivered to the customer through this year and in 2027. The equipment

will sit in the customer inventory until the project restarts. We see this as a