Daily Economic Briefing

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

22 June 2026

Strait opening eases worries

• Confidence is an important channel through which the Middle East conflict can Economic and Policy Research

weigh on the outlook. Any stall in the fading of last year’s business caution Nora Szentivanyi

would threaten the nascent recovery in labor markets that is central to (44-20) 7134-7544

sustaining growth into 2H26. The step back in both business and consumer nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

confidence in March and April raised concern. In this regard, recent J.P. Morgan Securities plc

developments toward an opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting fall Maia Crook

in energy prices should reverse some of the confidence deterioration. (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

• Along with its signal for current output activity, this week’s June flash PMIs JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

for the major DM economies (out tomorrow) will provide an early read on any Joseph Lupton

rebound in business sentiment. Ahead of these, consumer confidence measures (1-212) 834-5735

are already rebounding. US and UK consumer confidence measures are joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

reported to have bounced this month. As reported today, Euro area consumer JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

confidence joins with a 1.3pts jump in June. While survey details are not yet

available, we suspect the consumer confidence gain reflects less downbeat

views on personal finances. If Middle East tensions continue to ease, sentiment

should continue to mend and support a gradual recovery in spending as the real

income squeeze fades. Our nowcast still points to consumer spending gains

moderating, but less sharply than our forecast for a 2Q26 contraction.

DM consumer confidence

Std.