Global Multi-Asset: Turmoil in the Middle East—Implications for Supply Chains

Research evidence excerpt

Global Multi-Asset: Turmoil in the Middle East—Implications for Supply Chains

Global Multi-Asset

22 June 2026 Citi Research

For the PMIs, the increase has reflected surging input prices as firms have managed

the reality of tightening global commodity markets (Figure 7). Supplier delivery

times have also lengthened. The good news is that to date the PMIs have not

signaled concerns about mounting backlogs of work. In addition, our index

suggests that pressures on global inventories have remained contained. Even so,

we’ve heard chatter that firms have preemptively padded inventories as protection

against a more extended closure of the Strait.

In our view, many of these supply-chain pressures are likely to linger, even if the

situation in the Middle East continues to resolve and oil prices remain moderate.

First, it remains to be seen when (or if) shipping flows through the Strait return to

their pre-conflict pace, and this is likely to happen gradually in any event. Second,

as we outline below, some sectors have endured damages to production capacity,

and it will likely take time to rebuild this infrastructure and bring full capacity back

online. Third, it will also take time to untangle the supply chain tensions that have

already emerged. Following the pandemic, the normalization process took roughly

18 months. While the challenges in this episode seem less severe than after the

pandemic, some sectors are likely to feel a pinch into 2027.

Figure 7. Global Manufacturing PMI: Underlying Series Figure 8. Global Supply Chain Indexes: Citi & NY Fed

50+=Expansion 50+=Contraction (Inverted) St Dev

80 20 5 Backlogs of Work

Input Prices Citi

Suppliers' Delivery Times (RHS) 4 NY Fed

70 30

May 2

60 40

50 50

-1

-2 40 60

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