Mexico Economics: Citi Mexico Expectations Survey

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Economics: Citi Mexico Expectations Survey

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22 Jun 2026 13:45:18 ET │ 12 pages

Mexico Economics

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey

CITI’S TAKE

We present the results of our Expectations Survey for the second half of

June 2026.

Most respondents expect no near-term Banxico rate move, with the policy rate

seen on hold through year-end 2026. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, Julio Cesar RuizAC

the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate shows no change +52-55-8421-6833

in the near term, with the majority of participants not penciling in an adjustment until julio.ruiz@citi.com

2027 or later. Of the 35 respondents, 28 expect no near-term move, while 2 expect a

cut in December 2026, and 6 participants expect a move during 2027. The median Felipe JuncalAC

forecast for the policy rate by end-2026 remains unchanged at 6.50%, with estimates felipe.juncal@citi.com

ranging from 6.50% to 6.25%. For end-of-2027, the median expectation is 6.50%, Ernesto RevillaAC

with estimates ranging from 7.00% to 5.75%.

+1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

Peso expectations strengthened. The consensus expects USDMXN to be at 17.92 by

end-2026, from 18.00 in the previous survey, with expectations ranging from 17.15 to

19.03. For end-2027, consensus expects USDMXN to be at 18.50, as a fortnight ago,

with expectations ranging from 17.10 to 19.96.

For 1H June, consensus projects headline and core inflation at 0.10% and 0.20%,

respectively. For the full month of June 2026, analysts expect headline inflation at

0.16% MoM, 3.81% YoY, lower than May’s rate of 3.94%, lower than a fortnight ago at

0.26% MoM. Core inflation edged down to 0.32% MoM in June from 0.34% MoM in

the last survey, or 4.11%, lower than the figure from the previous month of 4.19% YoY.