Euro area: Consumer confidence continues a gradual recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Euro area: Consumer confidence continues a gradual recovery

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

22 June 2026

Euro area: Consumer confidence

continues a gradual recovery

Ahead of the June Flash PMI release, the European Commission’s flash consumer Economic and Policy Research

confidence survey showed another modest improvement in sentiment in June — Mariana Monteiro

though confidence remains at very low levels following a sharp decline through (44 20) 3493-5147

April (around 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average). The 1.3-point mariana.reispaivamonteiro@jpmorgan.com

increase was broadly in line with our expectation of a 1-point gain. The earlier J.P. Morgan Securities plc

slump in confidence at the onset of the renewed energy shock was associated with

PMI weakness via consumer services; today’s improvement therefore reinforces

our forecast for a modest uptick in tomorrow’s release (we are looking for a +0.5pt

rise in the composite index).

Taken together with other recent releases, our nowcast models still point to a

further moderation in household spending growth in 2Q, though the pace remains

marginally positive at around +0.1% to +0.4%ar. At face value, this implies greater

resilience among euro area consumers than we had anticipated, posing upside risks

to our forecast of a -0.5%ar contraction. That said, we will wait for additional 2Q

prints—such as June PMI consumer services and May new car registrations and

retail sales—before revisiting our forecast.

Finally, while the survey details are not yet available, we suspect that the further

improvement largely reflects the moderation in fuel prices over the past two

months. May’s survey pointed to less downbeat expectations for personal finances