The SMID Point

Research evidence excerpt

The SMID Point

Alexander Hacking, CFA

Veradermics, Incorporated (MANE.N) - Female pattern hair loss opportunity

provides significant optionality; excluded from Street models

We view Veradermics' lead drug VDPHL01 as increasingly de-risked following

strong phase 2/3 data in male pattern hair loss (PHL; note here and here). That

said, a major underappreciated opportunity comes from female PHL, which is not

assumed in Citi or consensus models. Indeed, recent KOL discussions point to

rising female hair-loss volumes over the past ~5 years with high treatment-

seeking behavior but no FDA-approved oral treatment options today. To frame the

potential upside, our sensitivity analysis suggests every incremental $1B of risk-

adjusted female sales in 2035e would add ~$50/sh to our MANE valuation

assumptions. Indeed, this could be conservative as it implies only ~5% peak

penetration in a highly motivated female market already using oral minoxidil. We

expect our KOL + CEO discussion (6/24 @ 10 am; register here) with Dr. Goli

Compoginis and Veradermics CEO Reid Waldman to help frame this opportunity.

Reiterate Buy, TP...

Buy/High Risk | Target price US$135.00

Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.

Industry

Artificial Intelligence - Citi’s Inference Ahead - Open v. Closed

The AI world’s focus is on the revelation that model access is subject to

government fiat and the need to expand on-premise, open source, and non-US

model investment accordingly. Along with the emerging routing technologies,

enterprises are deploying to optimize token spend, this revelation will accelerate

open-source adoption. The pricing gap for output tokens between US+EU and

Chinese frontier models widened from $5.93 to $10.05 in four weeks (Figure 12), as

US+EU average output pricing rose 28% MoM while it dropped 19% for APAC