JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

22 June 2026

We published our EM Corporate Strategy Presentation: 2026 Mid-Year Emerging Markets Corporate

Outlook. Global growth has been robust at above potential YTD supported by AI Strategy

investments, offsetting uncertainties from the disruption of the Strait closure and Yang-Myung Hong AC

higher oil prices. Our economists think strong growth momentum and patient CBs (1-212) 834-4274

point to a constructive baseline, which is reinforced by the recent US-Iran deal. ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

That said, inflationary pressure is pushing up rates globally, raising concerns about J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

whether the tight credit spreads and fundamentals will hold. Our assessment is that Alisa Meyers

CEMBI issuers should be less exposed to the negative repercussions from higher (1-212) 834-9151

alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

rates compared to history as well as other EM asset classes, though with differences J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

by region and sector. Dhawal U Mehta

(91-22) 6157 3779

We lowered our baseline CEMBI spread target for end-2026 to 180bp from dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

210bp, but higher rates moderate return expectations to +3.8% for the year. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

CEMBI spreads can stay around the compressed levels due to favorable macro

growth, strong technicals, buoyant market tone, and broadly robust fundamentals.

We maintain MW given spreads remain at the tight end of the historical range, but

the environment remains conducive for carry-plus compression trades in select

segments into 2H26 with continued commodity outperformance.

Robust supply but not exuberant, met by supportive demand. Forecast $460bn