JPM High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

JPM High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Morning Intelligence

Sources: J.P.Morgan.; LSEG Lipper/Refinitiv

--High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Market Brief: High-yield bond prices declined modestly Thursday (-

$0.05 d/d, +0.35% d/d HYG) and yields and spreads rose 2bp and 4bp, respectively, alongside a +1.1%

gain in the S&P 500 and 3bp decline in 10yr Treasury yields. And high-yield bonds spreads were stable

last week as the US-Iran war concluded alongside a much more than expected hawkish Fed. The Fed

meeting delivered a very hawkish statement responding to higher inflation estimates with the dot plot split

down the middle as nine participants looked to hike this year (3x looking for one hike, 5x for two hikes,

and 1x for three hikes) and nine looked to refrain from any tightening this year. Notably, OIS Forwards are

now pricing in more than a 90% chance of a hike by the September meeting and an additional hike by

March 2027. Meanwhile, May retail sales showed the consumer continuing to absorb the hit from higher

gasoline prices, as non-gas spending growth remained robust. Our economists look for real consumer

spending to rise 0.1%m/m in May, which if followed by a similar gain in June would leave the quarter at

2.1%. High-yield bond yields rose 1bp while spreads tightened 4bp over the past week to 7.19% and

300bp, which are up 9bp and down 5bp in June and are up 41bp and down 15bp YTD. For reference,

spreads touched a post-GFC low of 295bp on January 22nd and a YTD high of 373bp on March 30th. CCCs

(+0.10% w/w) underperformed BBs (+0.15% w/w) and Single-Bs (+0.16% w/w). And from a sector

stance, Transportation (+0.51% w/w) and paper/Packaging (+0.37% w/w) outperformed the index whereas

Cable/Sat. (-0.44% w/w) and Energy (-0.17% w/w) underperformed.

Historical Credit Spreads