JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update: Spreads underperforming risk assets at wider end of recent range

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update: Spreads underperforming risk assets at wider end of recent range

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Credit Research

Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA AC 22 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

(1-212) 834-2370

nathaniel.rosenbaum@jpmorgan.com

JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update

Spreads underperforming risk assets at wider end of recent range

Our JULI index widened for 3 days in a row last week, the first time we’ve seen this within the same week since March 11-13th,

which like last week was a week of relatively heavy supply with $48bn pricing last week. This brought spreads to 87bp, the

widest they’ve been since May 12th. While this in theory breaks spreads out of the narrow 3bp range we discussed last Monday, it

is not yet a clear break wider in our view though it is notable that this is the second week in a row of opposing performance vs.

Equities (S&P500 +0.93%, its best week MTD). It is likely to be another heavy week of supply as issuers look to fund ahead of

the July 4th holiday week and yields now back to within 3bp of the average that has prevailed since the Iran conflict started. Even

with the recent moderate decline in yields, domestic mutual fund and ETF demand remains strong, as we discuss in more detail

below as it relates to last week’s fund flows:

HG fund flows rose to $9.4bn of inflows (+11% WoW), though they remain modestly below the 4-week average of $10bn. The

increase was driven by ETFs, where inflows rose to $8.8bn (+26% WoW), while Mutual Fund inflows declined to $653mn (-57%

WoW). Overall, our estimate of flows into HG corporate bonds across the fund complex rose to $5.8bn (+45% WoW). By sub-

category, Corp-only inflows rose to $4.6bn (+88% WoW; highest since mid-August 2025), led by the intermediate bucket which