EMEA Metals & Mining: Copper: Where we‘re going, we don‘t need balances; EMEA Miners trading at premium valuations

Research evidence excerpt

EMEA Metals & Mining: Copper: Where we‘re going, we don‘t need balances; EMEA Miners trading at premium valuations

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

22 June 2026

EMEA Metals & Mining

Copper: Where we’re going, we don’t need balances;

EMEA Miners trading at premium valuations

JPM Commodities Research team published a note giving its latest view of the European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACcopper market (link). Despite a global refined market surplus as a backdrop, our Patrick Jones

colleagues continue to see support for medium-term copper prices driven by tight (44-20) 7742-5964

mine supply and structurally supported demand. In the near term, they see a patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

potential announcement of the Trump administration pursuing a phased, escalating J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Section 232 tariff on refined copper cathode or other ambiguous but escalatory Dominic O'Kane AC

regimes to continue to incentivise inventory drawing into the US, forcing China to (44-20) 7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

react, and thus creating a tug-of-war for copper between the US and China, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

supporting LME copper prices. However, they consider an outright tariff

Rosie Jia

announcement with no escalation expectations to be bearish for LME copper prices (44-20) 3493-7448

as it could lead to a closed US import-arb and a return of China’s pricing power in rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

the global copper market. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Varun Bhattad

JPM Commodities Research revises its 2026/27 copper price forecasts by +7%/ (91-22) 6157-5027

+19% to ~$13,900/t and ~$13,800/t, respectively (vs the previous$12,956/t and varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

$11,625/t). However, we continue to see EMEA Miners trading at peak late-cycle