Big Picture: A New Memorandum and a New Fed Chair

Research evidence excerpt

Big Picture: A New Memorandum and a New Fed Chair

Sales & Trading

US Macro Credit Trading J P M O R G A N

22 June 2026

FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – This material is from a Sales and Trading department and is not a product of the Research Department.

To start the week, markets staged a modest rally as investors digested the Iran deal (finally!) which was announced last Sunday.

Oil futures fell sharply but credit and rates markets both experienced more muted reactions. In credit, this was likely due to a tight

starting point--CDX.IG protection turned better bid as the index slipped below 50bps. In rates the limited rally was perhaps due to

investors anticipation of Wednesday's Fed.

The anticipation was justified. Warsh's comments about taming inflation combined with hawkish dots caused a violent curve

flattening, with the rally in the long end continuing into Thursday. This cements rates volatility as the potential new "biggest

worry" in credit as it has the potential to at least temporarily disturb the strong yield-enduced technical.

Volumes across the macro product set remained elevated as investors shifted their portfolios and hedges to account for the new

macroeconomic conditions: decompression and dispersion reemerging over systemic concerns. These higher volumes have been a

consistent theme this year and are highlighted as part of our publishing research's excellent midyear outlook.

Mid-year outlook: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5331168-0

Finally, we reviewed and refreshed all our trades over the last few MCPs this week. Replay link and slides available below.

MCP Replay: https://jp-morgan-macro-credit-perspectives-trading-jun-2026-60370.open-exchange.net/livestream

MCP Slides: https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5341602-0.pdf