EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 22 June 2026

RUB CBR cut on Friday but disappointed the market a little by only going by 25bps, rather than the

more widely predicted 50bps. Ruble reacted by moving a little stronger on the knee jerk,

but closed largely unchanged at 73.25. Developments in the war with Ukraine have not been

positive for Russia in recent weeks and this could start to impact Ruble a little more, even if

there seems to be a steady supply of hard currency, particularly towards month ends. Fairly

neutral here.

ZAR It was a pretty quiet session on Friday, but we did finally see some real-money accounts come

in and start selling USDZAR as the pair reached attractive levels to fade. As I wrote in my

comments last week, I still think the rand can outperform even after the more hawkish

Fed, mainly on the back of the improved terms of trade from lower oil prices following last

week’s US-Iran de-escalation. As such, I’ve started to rebuild some USDZAR shorts again,

while still maintaining my downside options.

TRY TRY is facing a less friendly external backdrop after the hawkish FOMC last week, with a

stronger USD and higher front-end rates weighing on EM carry in general. Having said that,

USDTRY price action is still firmly contained by state-bank offers which is currently at

46.4625, in line with the expected crawl. Local flows remain the main focus. There are still no

meaningful signs of local retail dollarisation, and locals appear to have shifted back toward

TRY after the initial reaction to the CHP headlines about a month ago. Political risk has

also eased somewhat. Early election risk has diminished after recent comments from Erdoğan’s