easyJet, Danone, EU Gaming, Essity CEO, Previews ...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail · Luxury · Staples · Leisure · Airlines

Research evidence excerpt

easyJet, Danone, EU Gaming, Essity CEO, Previews ...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary Retail · Luxury · Staples · Leisure · Airlines

n solid, but with the impact of Charlotte Tilbury Magic Cream reformulation still

weighing on Q2. Higher tariffs, FX and ME disruptions should weigh on H1 EBITDA margins, JPME -30bps. Limited

changes to FY26 estimates. After merger talks with Estee Lauder ended in May, Celine believes investors need to reconnect

with the growth narrative to re-rate the equity story (CMD on October 28th), though the trimming on Q2 LFL and risks to

FY26 LFL consensus downwards adjustments will likely continue to weigh on the multiple. In the wake of continued

uncertainties on ME impact, the recent warning by EU beauty retailer Douglas on weaker European demand, and a tough

comps to cycle in H2 make-up and Asia, she sees low visibility on FY26 LFL outcome. All details here

• Hugo Boss (JPM N0. Q2 Preview. Chiara trimmed estimates by -2% on soft consumer environment in EMEA. She expects

Q2 Group sales -8.5% ex-FX vs. -6% in Q1 on tougher comps and a bigger impact from the Middle East. Gross margin to

continue to show positive dynamics (JPMe +70bps to 63.6%) driven by ongoing sourcing efficiencies, pricing actions and

lower promotional activity. Chiara also factors in ongoing opex diligence, containing operating deleverage to some extent,

leading to Q2 EBIT -35% yoy to €53m, implying margin -230bps to 5.8%. See all details here

Weekly wrap-ups from the team:

• EU Consumer: The Weekend Edition (link)

• EU Luxury & Sporting Goods: Timely & Priceless (link)

• EU General Retail: Weekly Stock Take (link)

• EU Gaming: All In - Your Weekly Gaming Roundup (link)

Away from Us

Carrefour resumed overweight at another broker; prior rating was equal-weight