JPM | THE HOUSE VIEW (& key charts...): APAC Market Thematics - Specialist Sales Commentary Thematics · Macro · Strategy

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | THE HOUSE VIEW (& key charts...): APAC Market Thematics - Specialist Sales Commentary Thematics · Macro · Strategy

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

22 June 2026

JPM | THE HOUSE VIEW (& key charts...)

Matthew See

+852 2800 8889

matthew.see@jpmorgan.com

JPM’s Economists & Strategists share their views on the outlook ahead. 5x which caught my eye this week are below:

1. Global Macro (Bruce Kasman): The fog of Warsh… JPM expects NO Fed hike in 2H26 (link)

2. Asia Macro (Sajjid Chinoy): China as the weak macro link… while rates in APAC rise (link)

3. Global FX Strategy (Meera Chandan): 2H trades = bullish pro-cyclical Carry and USD (link)

4. Global EQ Strategy (Mislav Matejka): Beaten up consumer plays can rebound in 2H (link)

5. Positioning (John Schlegel): Neutral positioning, strong performance & bearish flows (link)

#1 - GLOBAL MACRO | The fog of Warsh… JPM expects NO Fed hike in 2026 (B. Kasman)

• Fed’s hawkish tilt - Beyond expectations. The June dot plot showed 9x members anticipating hikes this year, with 6x

looking for two or more moves. We anticipated a hawkish tilt, but the magnitude of the move surprised us - going beyond the

removal of the 26 easing bias. The motivation for the shift is the revised projections - core inflation in 26 (3.3%) and 27

(2.5%) moved materially higher, & the committee shifted from a downside to a balanced assessment of growth risks.

• But JPM expects no 2026 hike - As inflation tapers. While the committee has shifted their focus to inflation, we continue to

believe a rate hike in 2026 is unlikely… with a moderation in the pace of headline and core inflation expected in the coming

months. As a result, we don’t expect a first hike until 2027 - and our baseline is that the dots will get pushed back. As Warsh