Stronger UK job report but trends remain in place

Research evidence excerpt

Stronger UK job report but trends remain in place

Global Markets Research

18 June 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

Stronger UK job report but trends remain in place European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• Almosteverythingwasstrongerthanexpectedintoday’sUKlabourmarketreport,but george.buckley@nomura.com

itcomesaftersofterreadingsinthepreviousmonthandwithpre-existingtrends +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

(towardsweakerwagegrowthandloweremployment)remaininginplace. Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

• Still,upsidesurprisestoprivatesectorwagegrowthandemployment(onboththe +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

householdandfirmsurveys),alongsidedownsidesurprisestotheunemploymentrate Josie Anderson - NIplc

andredundancies,helpsupportthecaseforaBoEratehike–nottoday,butinour josie.anderson@nomura.com

viewasearlyasnextmonth. +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

Global Economics

• Whileweexpectratestobeonholdatmiddaytoday,thevotesplitandMPC David Seif - NSI

members’viewsexpressedintheirindividualparagraphsintheminuteswillbecrucial david.seif@nomura.com

indecipheringwhethermarketsarerighttopriceoutasummerhike. +1 212 667 9180

Wage growth ticks up slightly, but not worrisomely

Today’s jobs market report out of the UK was stronger, following on from yesterday’s

softerheadlineCPIprint. Private sector regular pay rose by 0.35% m-o-m in April, after

some modest upward revisions to the previous two months. That is the strongest print so

far this year. Still, these are volatile data and the latest three-month and six-month

averages are showing annualised rates of around 2.5% – which the BoE should be

generally encouraged by.

Fig. 1: A summary of today’s UK job report Fig. 2: Looking through volatility in monthly payroll changes

UK labour market indicators