Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

22 June 2026

Europe, Middle East and Africa

Emerging Markets Weekly

Hormuz deal creates space for dovish tilt in EMEA EM EM, Economic and Policy Research

There are not many hawks left in EMEA EM, and the US-Iran deal announced last Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

week has the potential, if sustained, to tilt parts of the region into a somewhat more (44 20) 7742-2466

dovish stance. The Czech National Bank hiked the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

last week, in response to sticky and elevated core CPI, as well as fast growth in

wages, house prices and credit disbursals. We still expect another hike in August Jose Cerveira

(44-20) 7742-3556

to 4%, but after the deal the option value of waiting increases, and we see increased jose.a.cerveira@jpmorgan.com

risks the CNB might stick toa one-and-done. This week the NBH is expected to cut J.P. Morgan Securities plc

rates by 25bps to 6%, benefiting from a period of benign CPI readings, a sharp Sonja Keller

post-election FX appreciation and a reduction in risk premia. Lower oil prices and (27-11) 507-0376

further HUF appreciation allow the authorities to unwind energy price caps, sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com

without an impact on CPI. The sheer reduction in uncertainty can easily encourage JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg

Branch

the NBH to cut further after June, and we think the odds of further easing are now

Anatoliy A Shal

extremely elevated. Türkiye is the other candidate for a more dovish stance: the

(971) 4561-2005

U.S.–Iran peace deal has reduced near-term upside risks to inflation and enabled anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com

the CBRT to rebuild its FX reserves.