Africa Edge

Research evidence excerpt

Africa Edge

Gbolahan S Taiwo (44-20) 3493-3412 Africa Economic Research J P M O R G A Ngbolahan.taiwo@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 22 June 2026

Francesco Arcangeli (44-20) 3493-0971

francesco.arcangeli@jpmorgan.com

Africa Edge We think May likely marked the inflation peak, driven by the

earlier oil-price shock from Middle East tensions. Oil prices

This is an extract from the EM Edge Data Watch. For the full have since fallen on expectations of easing US–Iran hostili-

publication and thematic essay please use this link ties, and with Nigeria’s downstream sector now deregulated,

domestic fuel prices could be cut as early as this month - sup-

• Nigeria: May inflation likely marks recent peak porting lower headline inflation. Continued FX stability

• Egypt: Remittances strong also in April should also help moderate core pressures, while June should

benefit from favorable base effects. We forecast June headline

• Tunisia: CAD wider in April and May inflation at 15.2% oya with momentum easing to 1.1% m/m,

• Suez Canal monitor and expect inflation to fall below 15% for most of 4Q. Key

risks are upside surprises in food inflation, especially during

Nigeria: Marginal rise in May inflation but it the rainy/planting season when harvests are lower. We still

has likely peaked expect a cumulative 100 bp policy-rate cut: 50 bp in Septem-

Gbolahan Taiwo ber and 50 bp in November.

Nigeria’s May headline inflation rose to 15.9% oya from Figure 2: Nigeria inflation and policy rate

Morgan oya Headline J.P15.7% in April - slightly above our 15.7% forecast but below % Forecast 45.0 Core

the 16.3% consensus. Monthly inflation eased to 1.7% m/m 40.0 Policy Rate

from 2.1%. Food remained the main driver, accelerating to 35.0 Food and non alcoholic beverages