Today‘s Morning Meeting

Research evidence excerpt

Today‘s Morning Meeting

Europe Equity Research

Europe First to Market 22 June 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Press reports increasingly point to an accelerated Labour leadership change, with Andy Burnham the likely

next Prime Minister. For our recent analysis detailing the implications for stocks and sectors please see UK

Spotlight: Makerfield Matters: Sector and Stock Implications of the UK’s Shifting Political

Landscape.

Today’s Morning Meeting

Equity Strategy (Mislav Matejka, CFA)

Certain beaten down Consumer plays to show better performance in 2H

Some of the consumer sub-sectors are trying to form a bottom, trading off lows in the past weeks. Consumer was in the eye of

the storm for a while, but we think better performance for the parts of the group can continue in 2H. If one is buying into the

space, one is definitely not joining consensus. Big picture, Cyclical sectors in general are strongly outperforming again this

year, aligned with our Year Ahead call, and we think that will continue in 2H, but Consumer Cyclicals is the one area that has

struggled. Most Consumer subsectors have been weak for a long time, ever since COVID’s V-shaped move. In contrast, all

other Cyclicals had strong spells in the past few years. Given that, Consumer plays’ price relatives are generally at multi-year

lows and consumer confidence indicators in most parts of the world are near record lows. These can only go higher from here.

Historically, Consumer stocks tended to outperform from the low points in consumer confidence. In terms of the catalysts,

easing geopolitical uncertainty in 2H would be important, as it feeds into oil price and interest rates outlook. Looking at oil price,

1. UAE left OPEC; 2.