European IG Metals & Mining: As good as copper

Research evidence excerpt

European IG Metals & Mining: As good as copper

J P M O R G A N Europe Credit Research

22 June 2026

European IG Metals & Mining

As good as copper

Commodity prices continue to stand at attractive levels for the European Metals & Europe Corporate Credit - Basic

Mining sector, notably with copper prices near record high levels. The improving Materials and Industrials

geopolitical backdrop should help increase visibility on demand and we believe the Benjamin Defay AC

long-term outlook for metals related to the electrification of the economy, (33-1) 4015 5047

particularly copper, but also aluminium, is strong. As a result, we expect the sector ben.defay@jpmorgan.com

to continue to record healthy cash generation this year, and we believe balance Guillaume Jouandin

sheets will remain solid despite the return of large-scale M&A. We recognize (44-20) 7134-1538

spreads are close to multi-year lows, but we see value in NHYNO (OW), VKFP guillaume.jouandin@jpmorgan.com

(OW) and AALLN (upgrade to OW from Neutral). Samuel Gosling

(44-20) 7134-0456

• Attractive commodity levels. Commodity prices continue to stand at samuel.gosling@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc

attractive levels for the European Metals & Mining sector, which we believe

should lead to solid FCF in 2026 and beyond. Copper, which has recently

dethroned iron ore as the key earnings driver for the sector, continues to shine

Credit Ratings JPM with prices close to record high levels (up ~10% YTD) and ~43% higher than

AALLN Baa2/BBB OW the five-year average. Aluminium has declined on the back of the ongoing

MTNA Baa2/BBB UW reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but remains ~30% higher than its five-year

BHP A1/NR N average. Meanwhile, the price of iron ore is 14% below its five-year average