LatAm Oil & Gas: Volatility Reigns: Who Holds Up If Oil Retraces

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil & Gas: Volatility Reigns: Who Holds Up If Oil Retraces

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

22 June 2026

LatAm Oil & Gas

Volatility Reigns: Who Holds Up If Oil Retraces

After geopolitical tensions involving Iran pushed crude higher and reopened a Latam Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals

ACscenario the market was underpricing, the narrative is now pivoting again: the Milene Clifford Carvalho

tentative US-Iran agreement has introduced a credible path for additional barrels (55-11) 4950-3475

to return to the market, calling into question the recently rebuilt risk premium. milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

Rather than prejudge the outcome, we provide a structured, two-way sensitivity Henrique Cunha, CFA

analysis across our coverage to quantify how each incremental move in Brent - up (55 11) 4950 3623

or down - translates into EBITDA, free cash flow, and valuation. The core question henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

for equities is straightforward: if a US-Iran deal materializes and oil retraces, which Rodolfo Angele, CFA

names hold up best; and if the premium persists, which converts marginal barrels (55-11) 4950-3888

rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

into the most shareholder value. PRIO and Petrobras screen as the most resilient Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

on the way down, and remain our top picks for the sector.

• From a renewed risk premium back to "how low can it go." Since March

1, global markets have treated the Strait of Hormuz as effectively closed, with Figure 9: EV/EBITDA 2026

military operations disrupting shipping, insurers withdrawing coverage, and Base case at $85/bbl for 2026

Persian Gulf exports falling sharply. In recent weeks, however, crude has 5.0x

increasingly found a path through, leaving the Strait's status genuinely 4.0x

ambiguous. According to J.P.