Norges Bank hawkish again, SNB steady

Research evidence excerpt

Norges Bank hawkish again, SNB steady

Global Markets Research

18 June 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

Norges Bank hawkish again, SNB steady European Economics

Josie Anderson - NIplc

Norges Bank review: We now expect an August rate rise josie.anderson@nomura.com

+44 (0) 20 7102 4284

• NorgesBankleftitspolicyrateunchangedat4.25%atitsJunemeeting,asweand

George Buckley - NIplc consensusexpected.

george.buckley@nomura.com • Itsguidancewasthat“itwilllikelybenecessarytoraisethepolicyratefurtheratone

+44 (0) 20 7102 1800

oftheforthcomingmonetarypolicymeetings”andintheminutesitnotedthatsome

committeemembersarguedinfavourofraisingthepolicyratenow.Italsorevisedup Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com itspolicyrateprojectiontosuggesta25bprateriseinQ3.

+44 (0) 20 7102 3167

• WebringforwardourexpectationofthenextratehikethisyeartoAugust

(previouslySeptember)inlightofthehawkishpolicyrateprojectionandminutes,and Global Economics

alsoNorgesBank’sMaydecisiontoraiserates,whichshoweditiswillingtohike David Seif - NSI

rapidlyfollowingahawkishrevisiontoitspolicyrateprojection. david.seif@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9180

Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% at its June meeting, asweand

consensusexpected. Its guidance was that “it will likely be necessary to raise the policy

rate further at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.” It also increased its

policy rate projection (Figure 1). The projection now implies a 25bp policy rate hike to

4.50% in Q3. However, the projection is not clear on whether Norges Bank is more likely

to hike in August or September. The projection reaches a peak of 4.55% in Q4 2026 and

Q1 2027, suggesting the possibility of a third hike this year.

Fig. 1: We do not expect another rate hike this year Fig.