JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

18 June 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research AnalystsNear-term risk of further intervention warrants

Global FX Strategyattention in the 160-163 range

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Warsh’s Fed regime change could mean more market surprises yujiro.goto@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• USD/JPY rose to around 160.95 after the June FOMC ended, as the Fed’s yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

communications were somewhat more hawkish than markets expected. However, JPY +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

depreciation was relatively limited versus the other G10 currencies due to weaker

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC equities and caution over possible Japanese FX intervention. tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

• The risk of near-term intervention remains elevated, especially in the USD/JPY 160– +81 3 6703 1427

163 range. Although recent verbal intervention has not intensified much, the MOF Yuki Kodera - NSC

could still surprise without a clear prior escalation in official warnings. yuki.kodera@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1281

• We do not favor chasing USD/JPY higher from current levels, given limited room for

markets to price in additional Fed hikes, sharply lower oil prices weighing on USD, and

a higher risk of market surprises under Warsh’s Fed.

Fig. 1: USD/JPY and Brent crude oil price Fig. 2: Inflows into publicly offered foreign equity funds

Source: Nomura, NRI

Source: Bloomberg, Nomura

USD/JPY rose to 160.70 area after June FOMC, but JPY’s depreciation against USD

was limited relative to other G10 currencies

Following communications from the June FOMC which were somewhat more hawkish

than market expectations, USD/JPY reached 160.95. However, because of weaker