We raise our earnings forecasts and target price, but valuations do not look especially attractive

Research evidence excerpt

We raise our earnings forecasts and target price, but valuations do not look especially attractive

Global Markets Research

19 June 2026Toyoda Gosei

7282.T 7282 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN AUTOS & AUTO PARTS

RatingWe raise our earnings forecasts and target price,

Remains Neutralbut valuations do not look especially attractive

Target price

Near-term earnings momentum looks weak on rising resin costs and upfront investment, Increased from 4,600 JPY 5,500

but we are positive on medium-term growth in airbag sales

Closing price JPY 5,064We maintain our Neutral rating as near-term earnings momentum does not look 18 June 2026

especially strong and valuations do not look compelling

We lower our 27/3 airbag demand forecast for Toyoda Gosei, factoring in the possibility Implied upside +8.6%

that OEMs will raise prices in response to higher component and semiconductor costs.

However, we raise our earnings forecasts to reflect a positive impact of around ¥1bn from

restructuring measures implemented in China in 26/3 and the bringing of Ashimori Industry

into the scope of consolidated accounting. We forecast operating profits of ¥3.5bn in 27/3 Relative performance chart

at Ashimori Industry, down ¥2.4bn y-y. The decline reflects the absence of a one-off

¥4.0bn positive accounting impact from the acquisition posted in 26/3. We maintain our

Neutral rating as near-term earnings momentum is not especially strong and valuations

are not particularly compelling with the shares trading at 10.9x our 27/3 EPS forecast. We

forecast medium-term EPS growth of 10–11%, slightly above the 9–10% average for

automotive companies in our coverage. We therefore apply a P/E of 12x, a 5% premium to

the 27/3 sector average of roughly 11.5x, and raise our target price to ¥5,500.