BoE review: Maradona to the rescue

Research evidence excerpt

BoE review: Maradona to the rescue

Global Markets Research

18 June 2026First Insights

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

BoE review: Maradona to the rescue European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• TheBoEvoted7-2forratesonholdwithGreenejoiningPillforahike.Despitethat, george.buckley@nomura.com

basedontheminutesitseemsastretchtothinkthatanyothermemberswillwantto +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

voteproactivelyforahike.NordoesitseemlikelythattheBoEwillpublishaninflation Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc

forecastthatfailstoreturntotargetatitsnextforecastmeetinginJuly. andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

+44 (0) 20 7102 3167

• Asaresult,thisdoesnotfeellikeaCommittee‘ontheedge’–readytopullthetrigger Josie Anderson - NIplc

ontighterpolicyattheslightestpieceofstrongerdata.Rather,notwithstandingthe josie.anderson@nomura.com

geopoliticaluncertaintiestheeconomyfaces,thissetofminutesgavetheimpression +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

thatthemajorityoftheMPCwascomfortablewithratesattheircurrentlevel. Global Economics

David Seif - NSI

• Assuch, weremoveoursingle25bpratehike fromourprofilebutretainourtwo david.seif@nomura.com

25bpcutsinH22027,whichwouldtakepolicybacktoaneutralsettingbytheendof +1 212 667 9180

ourforecasthorizon(3.25%).

Summary

The Bank of England voted to keep rates on hold at 3.75% today in a 7-2 vote – both Pill

and now Greene too voted for a hike (the vote was 8-1 at the April meeting with just Pill

voting for a hike then).

Most of the members that voted for rates on hold were talking about the need only to react

(by hiking rates) should second-round effects begin to show through or the Bank thinks

that inflation wasn’t ultimately going to return to its target. We will know more about that at

the end of next month when the Bank publishes its new Monetary Policy Report (MPR)

forecasts.