Taiwan: CBC stays on hold with two dissenters voting for a hike

Research evidence excerpt

Taiwan: CBC stays on hold with two dissenters voting for a hike

Global Markets Research

18 June 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsTaiwan: CBC stays on hold with two dissenters

Asia Economicsvoting for a hike

Jeong Woo Park - NSL

Despite relatively dovish comments from Governor Yang, we maintain our jeongwoo.park@nomura.com

forecast for two 12.5bp rate hikes (December 2026 and March 2027). +65 6433 6197

Si Ying Toh, CFA - NSL

• The CBC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.00% for the ninth consecutive meeting, in siying.toh@nomura.com

line with consensus and our expectations. However, the on-hold decision was not +65 6433 6666

unanimous with two members (out of 15) voting for a hike. The RRR and selective

Asia Rates Strategy credit controls were also left intact. The CBC has revised up its 2026 GDP growth and

Albert Leung - NIHK inflation forecasts to 9.45% (from 7.28%), and 1.9% (from 1.8%), respectively.

albert.leung1@nomura.com

• We maintain our view for two 12.5bp rate hikes (December 2026 and March 2027; +852 2252 1401

terminal rate: 2.25%), underpinned by our view of a broad-based growth recovery, as Clair Gao, CFA - NIHK

well as rising and broadening inflationary pressures that could eventually push up clair.gao@nomura.com

inflation expectations and lead to the risk of second-round effects. +852 2252 1081

• That said, we highlight the risk of fewer rate hikes than in our base case as the

post-policy press conference was noticeably more dovish than the accompanying

economic assessment. While the macroeconomic backdrop has become increasingly

supportive of policy normalization, Governor Yang continued to emphasize willingness

to look through short-term increases in CPI inflation beyond 2%, and showed little