ESG: Super El Niño and Japanese equities

Research evidence excerpt

ESG: Super El Niño and Japanese equities

Global Markets Research

ESG: Super El Niño and Japanese equities 19 June 2026

EQUITY: JAPAN ESG

Research Analysts

We should focus more on La Niña than El Niño Japan ESG research

Sahoko Goshima - NSC

Risk of food inflation from a Super La Niña could be higher than that from sahoko.goshima@nomura.com

a Super El Niño +81 3 6703 1740

Kazuya Nakagawa - NSC

Spotlight on whether a Super El Niño will be followed by a Super La Niña kazuya.nakagawa@nomura.com

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the US NPO World +81 3 6703 1184

Resources Institute (WRI), and other organizations have sounded the alarm about a food Japan food

crisis that could be triggered by a Super El Niño (a major rise in ocean surface Makoto Morita - NSC

temperatures in equatorial areas of the Pacific Ocean). In a 8 June 2026 statement, the makoto.morita@nomura.com

FAO noted that countries around the world are already experiencing severe food crises. +81 3 6703 1211

The FAO also indicated that the El Niño weather phenomenon forecast for the second half

of 2026 could further threaten food production in these countries. Generally speaking, a

crisis of food production is caused by insufficient production and/or distribution volume of

the crops that provide most of humanity's calories, including wheat, maize, soybeans, and

rice.

Nomura's ESG team thinks the impact of rising food prices is likely to manifest in Japan in

terms of food inflation and the earnings of Japanese food companies not when an El Niño

occurs but rather when a La Niña takes place (La Niña tend to occur in the wake of El Niñ

o events and are characterized by a drop in ocean surface temperatures in equatorial

areas of the Pacific Ocean).