JPY Weekly: USD/JPY: Risk of a new high and signs of a medium-to long-term peak

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Weekly: USD/JPY: Risk of a new high and signs of a medium-to long-term peak

Global Markets Research

19 June 2026JPY Weekly

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research AnalystsUSD/JPY: Risk of a new high and signs of a

Global FX Strategymedium- to long-term peak

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Key events next week: Intervention risk, remarks by senior officials from yujiro.goto@nomura.com

the BOJ and the Fed, Tokyo CPI and preliminary PMI readings +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• USD/JPY remains under near-term upward pressure as the BOJ’s 25bp hike has not yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

been sufficient to stop JPY weakness, while the Fed’s more hawkish communications +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

have kept USD firm. A break above the July 2024 high is a realistic near-term risk.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC • A medium-term peak in USD/JPY is becoming more likely, supported by lower oil tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

prices, easing US inflation expectations and the possibility of JPY-buying intervention +81 3 6703 1427

by the Japanese authorities. Volatility may rise, but the balance of risks suggests the

Yuki Kodera - NSC pair could be nearing a high. yuki.kodera@nomura.com

• JPY week ahead: Fed hawkishness is keeping USD strong and raising the risk of FX +81 3 6703 1281

intervention in USD/JPY. Markets are watching BOJ comments and Tokyo CPI for

clues on future BOJ hikes and inflation re-accelerating.

Downward pressure on oil prices from the US–Iran agreement

With a tentative peace agreement between the US and Iran coming into effect, the US

declared an end to the maritime blockade on 18 June, and the resumption of navigation

through the Strait of Hormuz has begun. During the 60-day negotiation period, the key

focus will be whether compromises can be reached in areas such as nuclear