Keisei Electric Railway

Research evidence excerpt

Keisei Electric Railway

Global Markets Research

19 June 2026Keisei Electric Railway

9009.T 9009 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

RatingWe see no catalysts for share price gains Remains Neutral

Target price

Share price valuations now based on earnings as expectations for gains Reduced from 1,400 JPY 1,100

on sale of Oriental Land shares fade, but inflation causing weak earnings

Closing price JPY 1,083.5We retain Neutral rating, value stock at P/B of 0.9x our end-27/3 BPS forecast 18 June 2026

We retain our Neutral rating on Keisei Electric Railway and update our earnings forecasts.

Implied upside +1.5%Operating profits at the transportation segment are on a downtrend because of the rise in

costs caused by inflation, and operating profits and ROE both declined in 26/3 at equity-

method affiliate Oriental Land [4661], and we expect them to do so again in 27/3.

Moreover, Oriental Land's share price has been sluggish over the past year, eroding the

Relative performance chartbenefits of selling the shares for fund procurement. We lower our forecasts for operating

and recurring profits to reflect higher costs and our new forecasts for Oriental Land. Even

so, we think operating and recurring profits will beat guidance in 27/3 as we expect strong

ridership on lines connecting Narita Airport with central Tokyo. We obtain our new target

price of ¥1,100 using a P/B of around 0.9x our end-27/3 BPS forecast. We previously used

a P/B of around 1.2x our end-26/3 forecast but now factor in the downward revision to our

27/3 ROE forecast to 8.0% and the rise in cost of capital caused by rising interest rates

and inflation.

We forecast 27/3 operating profits of ¥33.6bn (down 1% y-y)

Management expects growth in the number of passengers to/from Narita Airport to slow