Indonesia Retailers: Revisiting the Walmart playbook Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia Retailers: Revisiting the Walmart playbook Quick Note

Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd

19 June 2026Indonesia Retailers

EQUITY: RETAIL

Revisiting the Walmart playbook Research Analysts

Indonesia Research Team

Heng Siong Kong - NSMQuick Note hengsiong.kong@nomura.com

+603 2027 6894

Walmart case study: SSSG strengthens during periods of consumer stress

We examined Walmart's (WMT US, Not rated) same-store sales growth (SSSG) trends Onshore expert

across the past two decades to assess the company’s resilience during periods of Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id),

constrained consumer power, as evident in softer wage growth and elevated food inflation.

Our analysis identified three key periods that warrant attention: the 2008 global financial Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)

crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 post-pandemic inflationary period

Nayla Yasminfollowing the Russia–Ukraine conflict (Fig.1). (nayla.yasmin@verdhana.id)

Interestingly, Walmart's SSSG tended to outperform during these periods, compared

Samuel Christianwith periods where wage growth significantly exceeded food inflation, such as

(samuel.christian@verdhana.id)

2015–2019 and, to a lesser extent, 2023–2025. This suggests that spending on essential

goods, particularly groceries, tends to be more resilient when real wage growth (defined Theonshoreexperts,whoare

as wage growth less food inflation) approaches zero or turns modestly negative. employedbyPTVerdhanaSekuritas

Indonesia(“Verdhana”)andarenotWhen wage growth comes under pressure while food prices continue to rise, consumers

licensedoutsideIndonesia,have

typically reallocate spending toward necessities and reduce discretionary purchases in contributedtothecontentofthis

order to maintain household budgets.